Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Agricultural Land and Driving Forces in Sichuan Basin,China,1990-2015
Sichuan basin is a geographical unit and a major grain-producing region in China.Although since the 20th century,changes in the regional socio-ecological system had influenced the scale and structure of agricultural land,the spatial and temporal evolution of agricultural land and its driving factors remain unclear.In this paper,it used land-use data and socio-economic statistics in 1990,2000,2010 and 2015,combined with spatial analysis and optimal parameters-based geographical detector(OPGD)model,to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural land in Sichuan basin,and explored the socioeconomic driving process over years.(1)Between 1990 and 2015,the total area of agricultural land in the Sichuan basin decreased by 1859.91 km2,exhibiting phased changes.From 1990 to 2010,changes in agricultural land were dominated by internal transfers,with significant conversions of drylands and paddy fields to orchards,along with agricultural land being transferred to woodland and construction land.From 2010 to 2015,agricultural land exhibited a significant transition trend to construction land.(2)There was a notable increase in orchards in northeastern Sichuan,a marked rise in construction land near urban centers and main roads,and a concentration of woodland expansion in the parallel ridge-valley belt.These spatial aggregation phenomena manifested as either high-high or low-low aggregations.The internal transfer of agricultural land,as well as its conversion to construction land and woodland,exhibited clear spatial differentiation and aggregation phenomena.(3)From 2000 to 2010,the agricultural labor force and the percentage of afforestation area were the primary driving factors of agricultural land-use change,with the interactions among factors predominantly exhibiting non-linear enhancement.From 2010 to 2015,GDP emerged as the main driving factor of agricultural land transfer,and the interactions among factors demonstrated a higher degree of two-factor enhancement in their explanatory power.This study provides valuable references for decision-making in territorial spatial planning and sustainable agricultural development.
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