Probability and Risk Analysis of Ship Collision for a River-Crossing Bridge
Based on the JTG/T 3360-02-2020 Specifications for Collision Design of Highway Bridges,employing the ship collision probability risk analysis method,this paper conducted a ship collision probability risk assessment analysis for a river-crossing bridge.The collision resistance capacity FD of the bridge piers was used to calculate the actual failure probability of the bridge piers.The results show that the total failure probability of bridge piers is 1.41×10-2,which is much larger than the design value of failure probability(1×10-4).The probability of failure is concentrated on the three main piers,and the estimated collision resistance of the current bridge piers doesn't satisfy the required collision resistance under the limit of failure probability.Based on the current navigational conditions,when the probability of bridge failure meets the L2 level requirements,the representative ship types for the defense of the main pier and transition pier are 5 000 t-class and 1 000 t-class ships.The impact of anti-collision facilities is not considered in this calculation,and it is recommended to employ reinforcement measures to enhance the bridge's anti-collision capacity.
万方数据
维普
