基于多元线性回归的年度销量预测方法

Annual Sales Forecast Method Based on Multiple Linear Regression

谯衡 ¹伍华骅 ²薛剑波 ³瞿鑫 ³梁艳 ²沈晓霞 ³陈昌华⁴

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作者信息

1. 西华大学国际经济与管理研究院,四川成都 610039
2. 中国烟草总公司四川省公司,四川成都 610041
3. 四川省烟草公司凉山州公司,四川西昌 615000
4. 西华大学管理学院,四川成都 610039
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摘要

基于业财融合的卷烟业务预算管理有利于平衡生产与需求、协同工商业,而对卷烟年度销售总量预测,建立切实合理的年度销售计划是实现高效有用的预算管理的前提.文章根据 2010-2021 年凉山烟草商业公司历年销售的相关数据,基于卷烟销售"人口确定销量,经济确定结构"的原则,选取常住人口数、城镇人口、乡村人口、性别结构、游客数指标、生产者物价指数、城镇化、城镇人均可支配收入 8 个指标作为解释变量,利用STATA软件建立多元线性回归模型.结果表明,该模型能够较好地预测出凉山烟草商业公司年度销售总量值的变化.

Abstract

The budget management of cigarette business based on the integration of industry and finance is conducive to balancing production and demands,and coordinating industry and commerce.Predicting the total annual sales of cigarettes and establishing a practical and reasonable annual sales plan are the premise to realize efficient and useful budget management.According to the sales data of Liangshan Tobacco Commercial Company from 2010 to 2021,based on the principle of"population determines sales volume and economy determines structure",this paper selects eight indicators as explanatory variables,including resident population,urban population,rural population,gender structure,tourist number index,producer price index,urbanization and urban per capita disposable income,and establishes a multiple linear regression model by using STATA software.The results show that the model can well predict the change of total annual sales value of Liangshan Tobacco Commercial Company.

关键词

多元线性回归/预测模型/预算管理

Key words

multiple linear regression/forecasting model/budget management

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基金项目

中国烟草总公司四川省公司科技项目(SCYC202325)

出版年

2024

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参考文献量9

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