首页|信用债违约特征、原因及风险预警探析

信用债违约特征、原因及风险预警探析

扫码查看
近年来,我国信用债违约事件频发,违约风险不断增加,违约规模不断扩大.文章通过梳理信用债违约现状及特征、分析信用债违原因,研究信用债违约风险的预警与防范措施,并从信用债投资角度提出相应建议.同时,通过统计违约前不同时点的债券价格、信用评级、隐含违约率、Z值等指标的变化情况,发现信用评级等指标对债券违约风险的预警效力不足,其中以财务数据为基础的Z值预警质量较好.
Analysis of the Characteristics,Causes,and Risk Warning of Credit Bond Default
In recent years,there have been frequent defaults on credit bonds in China,with increasing default risks and expanding default scales.The article reviews the current situation and characteristics of credit bond defaults,analyzes the reasons for credit bond defaults,studies early warning and prevention measures for credit bond default risks,and proposes corresponding suggestions from the perspective of credit bond investment.Meanwhile,by analyzing the changes in bond prices,credit ratings,implied default rates,Z-value at different time points before default,it is found that credit ratings and other indicators have insufficient warning effectiveness for bond default risks.Among them,the Z-value warning based on financial data has better quality.

credit debtdefault characteristicsrisk early warningZ-value

靳亚阁

展开 >

中国人民人寿保险股份有限公司,北京 100020

信用债 违约特征 风险预警 Z值

2024

商业观察

商业观察

ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.10(22)