首页|基于生产因素相关性分析的矿井涌水量预测

基于生产因素相关性分析的矿井涌水量预测

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基于典型工作面生产数据,开展矿井涌水量与生产因素相关性分析,最终确定采用与矿井涌水量具有显著相关性的开采面积、原煤产量、采掘长度等生产因素作为预测变量.利用逐月矿井涌水量与开采面积、原煤产量、采掘长度等数据进行多元相关计算,求得多元线性相关回归方程,计算矿井涌水量预测值.采用相对差值法评价了预测结果,并进行了预测准确性分析,得出经济型等级占比62.5%,经济型+安全型等级占比95.2%,71%的预测值均落在实测值左右各一个剩余标准差范围内.分析认为,相关(回归)分析法在综合考虑了开采面积、原煤产量、采掘长度等生产因素基础上求得的多元线性相关回归方程的预测精度较高,对煤矿具有较高的参考价值.
Prediction of mine water inflow based on correlation analysis of production factors
Based on the production data of typical working face,the correlation analysis between mine water inflow and pro-duction factors is carried out,and the mining area,raw coal output and mining length,which are significantly correlated with mine water inflow,are finally determined to be used as predictive variables.Using the data of monthly mining area,raw coal production and mining length,multiple linear correlation regression equation is obtained to calculate the predicted value of mine water inflow.The relative difference method is used to evaluate the prediction results,and the prediction accuracy is analyzed:The economic grade accounts for 62.5%,and the economic +safety grade accounts for 95.2%.71%of the pre-dicted values falls within one remaining standard deviation range of the measured values,indicating that the prediction accu-racy of the multiple linear correlation regression equation obtained by the correlation(regression)analysis method on the ba-sis of comprehensive consideration of production factors such as mining area,raw coal production and mining length is high.The study has higher reference value for coal mine.

mine water inflowcorrelation analysismining arearaw coal outputmining lengthaccuracy class

樊发旺、郭爱江、芦震、王鹏

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宁夏回族自治区煤炭地质局,宁夏 银川 750000

国家能源集团宁夏煤业有限责任公司红柳煤矿,宁夏 银川 750000

矿井涌水量 相关性分析 开采面积 原煤产量 采掘长度 准确性等级

宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金

2021AAC-03464

2024

陕西煤炭
陕西省煤炭工业协会 神华神东煤炭集团有限责任公司 陕西煤业化工集团有限责任公司

陕西煤炭

影响因子:0.204
ISSN:1671-749X
年,卷(期):2024.43(2)
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