首页|基于天气预报的泾惠渠灌区参考作物滕发量预报模型研究

基于天气预报的泾惠渠灌区参考作物滕发量预报模型研究

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农业节水背景下,对泾惠渠灌区参考作物滕发量预报方法进行研究,选用Hargreaves-Samani公式作为预报模型,运用中国气象数据网泾河站 2008 年~2020 年 13 个年份的气象数据进行SPSS参数反演,并采用2022 年的实测气象数据进行验证,表明适合泾惠渠灌区的Hargreaves-Samani模型参数为C=0。00122、a=14。19、m=0。259。通过验证,83。2%验证值相对误差在 20%以内,同时表明Hargreaves-Samani模型进行参考作物滕发量预报时,呈现"夏季>春季>秋季>冬季"的精度分布规律,可为灌区灌溉预报和智慧水利发展提供实用的理论依据。
Study on the Forecast Model of Reference Crop Yield in Jinghuiqu Irrigation Area Based on Weather Forecast
Under the background of agricultural water saving,the prediction method of reference crop evapotranspiration in Jinghuiqu irrigation area was studied.Hargreaves-Samani formula was selected as the prediction model.The meteorological data of Jinghe station in China Meteorological Data Network from 2008 to 2020 were used for SPSS parameter inversion,and the measured meteorological data in 2022 were used for verification.The results showed that the Hargreaves-Samani model parameters suitable for Jinghuiqu irrigation area were C=0.00122,a=14.19,m=0.259.Through verification,the relative error of 83.2%verification value is within 20%.At the same time,it shows that the Hargreaves-Samani model presents the accuracy distribution law of'summer>spring>autumn>winter'when predicting the reference crop evapotranspiration,which can provide practical theoretical basis for irrigation forecasting and intelligent water conservancy development in irrigation areas.

Jinghuiqu Irrigation Districtreference crop yieldforecast modelhargreaves-Samani formula

韩红亮、胡文兵、王雪梅、董爱红

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杨凌职业技术学院,陕西 杨凌 712100

咸阳水文水资源勘测中心,陕西 咸阳 712000

泾惠渠灌区 参考作物滕发量 预报模型 Hargreaves-Samani公式

杨凌职业技术学院自然基金研究项目

ZK2020-04

2024

陕西水利
陕西省城乡供水管理办公室

陕西水利

影响因子:0.185
ISSN:1673-9000
年,卷(期):2024.(10)