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基于大数据的配电系统运行可靠性预测

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基于大数据技术对配电系统运行可靠性进行预测.建立配电系统运行可靠性四维指标体系,利用主成分分析法,从大量数据中提取主要评价指标,对指标影响因素进行分析.根据并行关联规则建立相关模型,从模型中提取运行可靠性主要指标和各影响因素间的强关联规则,获得主要影响因素.利用人工神经网络方法进行预测,根据历史数据与实时数据,将主要影响因素作为预测的输入量,输出量为主要评价指标.通过预测,判断后续一段时长内的运行可靠性.通过算例验证所提出的方法能够快速有效地对配电系统运行可靠性进行预测.
The operational reliability of the distribution system was predicted based on big data technology.A four-dimensional index system for the operational reliability of the distribution system was established,the principal component analysis was used to extract the main evaluation indicators from a large amount of data,and the influencing factor of the indicator was analyzed.A relevant model based on parallel association rule was built,the operational reliability main indicators and strong association rule between various influencing factors were extracted from the model,and then the main influencing factors were obtained.By means of artificial neural network method for prediction,based on historical and real-time data,the main influencing factors are used as input variables for prediction,while the output variables are main evaluation indicators.By predicting,the operational reliability for the next period of time was determined.Through calculation example,the operational reliability of the distribution system can be quickly and effectively predicted by this proposed method.

Big DataDistribution SystemOperationReliabilityPrediction

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大唐陕西府谷煤电有限责任公司 陕西榆林 719405

大数据 配电系统 运行 可靠性 预测

2024

上海电气技术
上海电气(集团)总公司

上海电气技术

影响因子:0.232
ISSN:1674-540X
年,卷(期):2024.17(4)