首页|孕育希望:宏观代际流动性对生育意愿的影响

孕育希望:宏观代际流动性对生育意愿的影响

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当今中国,子女在家庭中仍处于中心位置,父母对子女福祉的重视会影响其生育决策.本文使用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2010-2018 年数据,考察了宏观社会流动性对生育意愿的影响.研究结果表明,相对流动性与期望子女数显著正相关,主观态度是重要的中介影响机制.从子代地位预期与抚育成本预期的视角出发,相对流动性的影响呈负社会经济梯度,但流动性的提升不会抑制高社会阶层的生育意愿;性别差异在社会化视角中被强调,男性受流动性的影响更强,并且流动性与期望男孩数关联更加密切.本研究从宏观层面丰富了对低生育率现象的理解,对从微观层面分析流动效应的研究也有借鉴意义.本文认为,机会公平政策应当作为当下中国生育促进政策的一个重要构成.
Raising Hope:The Impact of Intergenerational Mobility on Fertility Desire in China
Children play such a crucial role in Chinese families that their future socioeconomic prospects significantly influence parents'reproductive decision.Drawing on the data from the 2010-2018 Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS),this study investigates the impact of macro-level intergenerational mobility on fertility intentions.The findings reveal a positive association between relative mobility and desired family size.Mediation analysis highlights the importance of subjective attitudes,including expected social status,subjective well-being,and societal evaluations.Additionally,analyses along socio-economic gradients demonstrate a diminishing effect of relative mobility with increasing socio-economic status,though it remains non-negative among high socio-economic groups.Furthermore,there are gender differences,with a more pronounced pattern observed among men than women,particularly regarding the preference for male offspring.Finally,the method of instrumental variable mitigates attenuation biases from measurement errors.This study advances our understanding of macro-level determinants of fertility intentions and underscores the significance of mobility opportunities for fertility policy considerations.

fertility desireintergenerational mobilityrelative mobilitychild-centered familism

蔡韦成、谢宇

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北京大学光华管理学院社会研究中心

美国普林斯顿大学社会学系

生育意愿 代际流动 相对流动 子女中心主义

2024

社会
上海大学

社会

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.315
ISSN:1004-8804
年,卷(期):2024.44(1)
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