云南与南亚东南亚国家贸易效率及潜力研究
A Study on Trade Efficiency and Potential between Yunnan and South and Southeast Asian Countries
鲁存珍1
作者信息
摘要
本文基于随机前沿引力模型,选取 2002-2021 年贸易相关数据,对影响贸易额的变量进行检验.结果显示,解释变量GDP、人口、距离以及贸易依存度对贸易额有重要影响,是否有共同边界和共同语言影响不明显,非效率因素政治稳定性、政府监管质量和贸易自由度对贸易额影响明显,政府效率、法治情况和商业自由度影响不明显.对贸易效率和潜力的测算显示,效率提高可开拓潜力占比下降,但贸易潜力绝对值扩大.分国家看,云南与各国贸易效率和潜力差异较大,因此文章将 15 国分为4 个区域,并就云南建设面向南亚东南亚辐射中心中如何促进贸易增长提出差异化的参考建议.
Abstract
Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model,this paper selects the trade-related data from 2002 to 2021 to test the variables affecting the trade volume.The results show that the explanatory variables including GDP,population,distance and trade dependence have important influence on trade volume,while the influence of common boundary and common language is not obvious.The non-effi-ciency factors such as political stability,supervision and trade freedom have obvious influence on trade volume,while efficiency,rule of law and business freedom have no obvious influence.The calculation of trade efficiency and potential shows that the ratio of exploitable potential decreases with the increase of efficiency year by year,but the absolute value of trade potential expands.From the perspective of coun-tries,there are great differences in trade efficiency and potential between Yunnan and other countries.Therefore,this paper divides 15 countries into 4 regions,and puts forward differentiated reference sug-gestions on how to promote trade growth in Yunnan's construction of the hub center facing South Asia and Southeast Asia.
关键词
随机前沿引力模型/贸易效率/贸易潜力Key words
Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model/Trade Efficiency/Trade Potential引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据