关键矿产资源供应链风险分析及对策——以铜资源保供稳价问题为例
Risks Analysis and Countermeasures of Critical Mineral Resource Supply Chains:A Case Study on Ensuring Copper Resource Supply and Stabilizing Prices
张菁秋 1吕阳 1蔡嘉瑶1
作者信息
摘要
铜被称为"新的石油",是我国短缺的战略性矿产资源及主要进口的大宗商品之一,在工业制造、电力通信等领域应用广泛,而新能源汽车、储能、人工智能的发展进一步催生了对铜的需求.我国铜资源严重依赖进口,作为价格接受者,容易受到资源民族主义和地缘政治风险等外生冲击的干扰,因此保障铜的供给安全尤为重要.近期受铜精矿供给紧张、下游需求上升、新兴经济体工业化崛起等影响,铜价当前处于十年来高位,导致进口成本增加,影响铜资源增储上产,压缩铜冶炼行业利润,压制下游接货意愿,对我国供应链安全形成挑战.研究聚焦我国铜资源供需矛盾和价格波动,就铜资源的保供稳价提出了对策建议.
Abstract
Copper,often known as the"new oil",is a critical strategic resource in short supply in China and a major imported product.It is extensively used across industrial manufacturing,power generation,and telecommunications.The burgeoning development of new energy vehicles,energy storage solutions,and artificial intelligence has further amplified the demand for copper.As a price-taker heavily dependent on imported copper,China is vulnerable to external shocks stemming from re-source nationalism and geopolitical risks,which underscores the importance of securing copper supply and stabilizing prices.Current influences such as tight copper concentrate supply,increasing downstream demand,anticipated U.S.dollar interest rate cuts,and the rise of industrialization in e-merging economies have driven copper prices to their highest levels in a decade.This situation has esca-lated import costs,impeded efforts to increase copper reserves and production,compressed profits with-in the copper smelting industry,and reduced downstream purchasing willingness,thus posing significant supply security risks.This paper examines China's supply-demand imbalance and copper price volatility and offers policy recommendations to stabilize copper supply and pricing.
关键词
关键矿产/铜资源/价格波动/对外依存度/供应链安全Key words
Critical Materials/Copper Resources/Price Fluctuations/External Dependence/Supply Chain Security引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据