A Prediction of the Carbon Emissions in Shanghai Based on Long Time Series and an Analysis of Main Driving Factors
Based on the long time series data from 2000 through 2020,a STIRPAT model has been developed for forecasting Shanghai's medium-and long-term carbon emissions based on energy consumption,and the LMDI model was used for quantifying the contribution of the main drivers as well.The results show that there are great differences in carbon emission trends under different emission reduction approaches,and the peaking year and peak level will have a significant impact on the realization of the carbon neutralization goal.The"Fourteenth Five-Year Plan"and"Fifteenth Five-Year Plan"are the key periods to determine the carbon emission peaking in Shanghai.If the control is effective,the carbon emission peaking may occur during 2010～2015,whilst being in a fluctuating downward phase at present.However,to investigate in combination of the outbreak of COVID-19 and the current international situation,it is more likely that the peaking of carbon emissions may occur by 2030 and slightly higher than the historical summit recorded in the period of 2010～2015.On account of the medium-and long-term forecast results based on Neutralization Scenario 2 and Neutralization Scenario 3,it shows that for achieving carbon neutrality in 2060,the average annual carbon emissions should be about 5 million tonne cut from 2030 onwards,and in 2050 would drop to about 50％of that in 2030 whilst the peak level would fall over 75％till 2060.This total carbon emission reduction pressure would be evidently higher than that in historical period,and optimising energy structure and declining energy intensity could be the main contributors to emission reduction.
Carbon dioxide emission peakingCarbon neutralitySTIRPAT modelLMDI model Prediction
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
