上海海事大学学报2024,Vol.45Issue(3) :40-48.DOI:10.13340/j.jsmu.202304090075

不确定扰动下原油海运供应链网络韧性提升策略

Enhancement strategies of crude oil maritime supply chain network resilience under uncertain disturbances

钟铭 郇蒙蒙
上海海事大学学报2024,Vol.45Issue(3) :40-48.DOI:10.13340/j.jsmu.202304090075

不确定扰动下原油海运供应链网络韧性提升策略

Enhancement strategies of crude oil maritime supply chain network resilience under uncertain disturbances

钟铭 1郇蒙蒙1
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作者信息

  • 1. 大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连 116026
  • 折叠

摘要

为提高原油海运供应链网络的抗扰动能力,考虑扰动事件及其影响的不确定性,以韧性水平为约束条件,建立一个以最小化网络总成本为目标的两阶段随机规划模型.为增强网络韧性,提出4种韧性策略,包括长期供应合同签订、接卸港设施加固、原油战略库存储备和原油供应比例优化.采用基于蒙特卡洛抽样理论的样本均值近似方法求解模型,并进行数值实验以验证模型和韧性策略的有效性.结果表明,更高的韧性水平会增加网络成本,综合运用多种韧性策略可以更有效地提高网络的抗扰动能力并降低网络成本.

Abstract

In order to improve the disturbance resistance capability of crude oil maritime supply chain network,considering the uncertainty of disturbance events and their impacts while taking resilience level as a constraint,a two-stage stochastic programming model is built with the objective of minimizing the total network cost.To improve the network resilience,four resilience strategies are proposed,including signing long-term supply contracts,reinforcing load and unload port facilities,establishing strategic crude oil reserves,and optimizing crude oil supply ratios.The model is solved using the sample average approximation method based on Monte Carlo sampling theory,and numerical experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the model and resilience strategies.The results show that,the higher resilience level increases the network cost,and the comprehensive application of multiple resilience strategies can more effectively improve the disturbance resistance capability of the network and reduce the network cost.

关键词

原油海运供应链/网络韧性/不确定扰动/随机规划

Key words

crude oil maritime supply chain/network resilience/uncertainty disturbance/stochastic programming

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基金项目

国家社会科学基金(22BGJ034)

出版年

2024
上海海事大学学报
上海海事大学

上海海事大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.578
ISSN:1672-9498
参考文献量7
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