Methanol ship-to-ship bunkering risk assessment based on dynamic Bayesian network
In order to reduce the risk of methanol ship-to-ship bunkering leakage,a dynamic Bayesian network model is constructed to evaluate the risk of methanol ship-to-ship bunkering leakage,and the causes and consequences of the accidents are analyzed by combining the bow tie model,the fuzzy set theory and the omission probability model.The results show that,the occurrence probability of methanol ship-to-ship bunkering leakage accidents is 0.040 10,and the main factors leading to the accidents are hose damage and flange damage.The occurrence probability of flash/pool fire after the accidents is 0.003 57,the occurrence probability of jet fire is 0.004 01,and the occurrence probability of vapor cloud explosion is 3.61 × 10-5.
ship-to-ship bunkeringdynamic Bayesian networkbow-tie modelfuzzy set theory
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
