Mutual feedback mechanism of land use conflict and carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from the spatial correlation perspective
In the context of global warming,carbon emission reduction has become a hot topic of global concern.Land use changes not only directly lead to carbon emissions from terrestrial ecosystems,but also indirectly affect anthropogenic carbon emissions.Therefore,clarifying the impact of regional land use structure changes on anthropogenic carbon emissions will help formulate low-carbon optimization strategies for national land space.Taking Jiangsu Province as the case study area,this paper conducts a spatial correlation analysis based on the long-term land use data and anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1997 to 2017 and uses a bivariate autocorrelation and coupling coordination degree model to explore the mutual feedback mechanism between land use conflict and anthropogenic carbon emissions.The results show that from(1)1997 to 2017,anthropogenic carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province took 2011 as the turning point to show a trend of growth followed by a gentle transition.The process of land use dynamics centered on the balance of construction land growth and agricultural land reduction was positively correlated with anthropogenic carbon emissions,and the strength of policy favoritism would largely affect the incremental amount and growth rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions.(2)There is spatial overlap between high-value areas of anthropogenic carbon emissions and low-value areas of land use conflicts in Jiangsu Province.High-value areas of anthropogenic carbon emissions and low-value areas of land use conflicts are concentrated in the relatively economically developed southern Jiangsu Province;while low-value areas of carbon emissions and high-value areas of land use conflicts are mainly located in northern Jiangsu,where economic development is relatively slow.(3)There is a spatial spillover effect between anthropogenic carbon emissions and land use conflicts,and according to the results of bivariate analysis,the relationships between carbon emissions and land use conflicts can be divided into four types of agglomerations:HL,HH,LL,and LH,and socioeconomic stages and industrial development characteristics in different regions are significantly differentiated.The relationship between the two as a whole is in a period of low coupling and antagonism,and more than 60%of the county units belong to the coordinated type.Overall,there is a certain trade-off relationship between land use conflicts and anthropogenic carbon emissions.The smaller the land use conflict,the larger the room for incremental anthropogenic carbon emissions;when the trade-off threshold is reached between the industrial structure and service types represented by land use,the conflict value is the largest,but the room for incremental anthropogenic carbon emissions decreases.Therefore,this study suggests improving the trade-off status of urban,agricultural,and ecological space through the territory spatial planning strategy,to constrain the growth rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions.Meanwhile,hotspot areas and pilot projects can be set up to provide references for neighboring cities by summarizing typical patterns of low-carbon land use paths.According to the coupling-coordination analysis framework,the carbon emission reduction paths of different types of land resource allocation modes can be clarified.Combined with the differentiated needs of problem identification and goal setting,the technical guidance requirements for low-carbon planning of district and county units will be proposed to take into account the universality and differentiation.
spatial correlationland use conflictanthropogenic carbon emissionsmutual feedback mechanismJiangsu Province
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