Study on the characteristics and influencing factors of local urbanization in population loss areas
Since China's economic reforms and opening up,numerous workers from the central and western regions have migrated to the more economically developed eastern areas for job opportunities and temporary settlements.Nevertheless,this traditional urbanization pattern,characterized by migration to different locales,has given rise to societal challenges,notably the"left-behind phenomenon"and"population loss".To tackle these issues and others stemming from urbanization in depopulating regions,such as weak industries,inadequate infrastructure,and limited public services,the Chinese Communist Party Office and the State Council issued the"Opinions on Promoting Urbanization Construction with Counties as Important Carriers"in May 2022.This landmark document introduced the concept of"population-losing counties"and emphasized the need to"promote moderate population and public service resource concentration,strengthening people's livelihood security and assistance",while advocating for high-quality,county-focused urbanization.This new approach has garnered significant academic interest.Evidently,China's urbanization rate still has considerable room for improvement in the long term.In-situ urbanization plays a crucial role in preventing and addressing both urban and rural issues.This paper encompasses 72 county-level population loss units in Sichuan Province,leveraging survey data from residents left behind in Yuechi County,a notable population-losing county.Utilizing multivariate logistic regression analysis,it examines the willingness of these left-behind residents to relocate and the influencing factors at the individual,familial,production and lifestyle,pension,and education levels.Initially focusing on representative counties in Sichuan,the findings indicate that while the urbanization level in population-losing counties remains low,the growth rate is substantial and positively correlated with the scale of population outflow.Furthermore,the analysis reveals that with significant population outflows,the local populace increasingly consists of children and the elderly.The declining labor market and the escalating overall dependency ratio have become foundational aspects of county urbanization.Building on this backdrop,this paper reaches the following conclusions:1)Urbanization in depopulating areas exhibits notable differentiation at the spatial,economic,and demographic levels.Approximately 40%of the left-behind residents express a proclivity towards urbanization,with their migration preferences ordered as counties,major cities,prefecture-level cities,and then small towns.2)Factors influencing local urbanization tend to prioritize lifestyle over production,implying that diverse individual and familial traits impact residents'urbanization choices,while limited work opportunities exert minimal influence.Family pensions and children's education emerge as pivotal determinants of local urbanization decisions.It proposes the following strategies:Firstly,in alignment with the national"14th Five-Year Plan"for public service planning,counties in depopulating areas should moderately centralize public services and resources in cities.This approach aims to enhance the quality of public services like education and healthcare in townships and improve the local workforce structure and labor quality.Secondly,it is imperative to foster county economies and key industries,expanding local employment prospects and exploring endogenous urbanization pathways driven by local industries.Lastly,strengthening the county-level urban-rural pension service and security systems is crucial to bolster the sense of security among rural elders.Looking ahead,it must adapt to the aging trends in China's counties,bolstering urban-rural pension services and land security planning.This involves providing planning guidance and policy support for rural individuals transitioning to urban retirement living and fostering the growth of the rural pension industry.
local urbanizationareas with population losscounty territoryurbanization willinfluencing factor
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
