首页|去杠杆政策、企业金融化与违约风险——基于集团与非集团企业的对比研究

去杠杆政策、企业金融化与违约风险——基于集团与非集团企业的对比研究

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选取我国 2010-2021 年A股的上市企业作为研究对象,并根据企业股权结构区分集团企业与非集团企业,使用KMV模型测算企业违约概率,利用双重差分模型研究去杠杆政策对违约风险的影响,主要的研究结论是:与非集团企业相比,去杠杆政策对集团企业的违约风险的降低效果更为显著;金融化与企业违约风险呈U型关系,适度金融化有助于去杠杆政策对集团企业违约风险抑制作用的有效发挥;货币政策紧缩强化了去杠杆政策和金融化对集团企业债务违约风险的抑制作用.政策上应该在坚持去杠杆同时,注意金融化的适度性,并促进企业集团建设,发挥内部资本市场能够有效配置金融资产的优势.
De leveraging Policy,Enterprise Financialization and Default Risk——A Comparative Study Based on Group and Non-group Enterprises
The listed companies of A-share in China from 2010 to 2021 are selected as the research object,and the group companies and non-group companies are distinguished according to their ownership structure.The KMV model is used to measure the probability of default of enterprises,and the triple difference model is used to study the impact of deleveraging policy on default risk.The main research conclusions are:compared with non-group companies,deleveraging policy has a more significant effect on the reduction of default risk of group companies;There is a U-shaped relationship between financialization and enterprise default risk.Moderate financialization of group enterprises helps to effectively play the role of deleveraging policy in restraining default risk.At the same time,monetary policy tightening strengthens the role of deleveraging policy and financialization in restraining debt default risk of enterprise groups.In terms of policy,we should adhere to deleveraging,pay attention to the appropriateness of financialization,promote the construction of enterprise groups,and give play to the advantages of the internal capital market that can effectively allocate financial assets.

DeleveragingEnterprise FinancializationDefault RiskTriple DifferenceGroup Enterprise

李程、王丹

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天津工业大学经济与管理学院,天津 300387

去杠杆 企业金融化 违约风险 双重差分 集团企业

教育部哲学社会科学后期项目

21JHQ068

2024

上海经济
上海社科院部门经济研究所

上海经济

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.114
ISSN:1000-4211
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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