目前动荡的国际环境导致企业成长遇到阻力,严重阻碍了我国的高质量发展.本文利用Jurado et al.(2015)提出的方法测度了中国货币政策不确定性,实证研究了货币政策不确定性对企业成长的影响效应和作用渠道.经验结果表明,货币政策不确定性会显著抑制企业成长,该结论在考虑内生性等一系列稳健性检验中依然成立.异质性检验表明,货币政策不确定性对生命周期处于成长期与成熟期、融资约束较高、位于中西部、非高技术行业企业的成长影响更明显;中介效应检验表明,存在企业现金流不确定性的传导渠道.本文研究为政府进一步促进企业成长,减少不确定性对经济的冲击有一定的参考价值.
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Growth:Empirical Evidence from China
The current turbulent international environment has presented obstacles to corporate growth,severely impeding high-quality development in China.This paper employs the methodology proposed by Jurado et al.(2015)to measure monetary policy uncertainty in China,empirically investigating the effects and transmission channels of monetary policy uncertainty on firm growth.Empirical results demonstrate that monetary policy uncertainty significantly hinders firm growth,a conclusion robust to a series of tests including endogeneity considerations.Heterogeneity tests reveal that the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on firm growth is more pronounced for firms in their growth and maturity stages,facing higher financing constraints,located in the central and western regions,and operating in non-high-tech industries.Mediation test result indicates the presence of a transmission channel through uncertainty in firm cash flows.This study provides valuable insights for the government in further promoting firm growth and mitigating the economic impact of uncertainty.
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