Forecast of Medium and Long-Term Economic Growth and Electricity Demand in Shanghai under the"Double Carbon"Goal
In the context of the"Double Carbon"goal,the macro economy and energy structure will have a non-negligible impact on electricity demand.As China's economic center and one of the most important elec-tricity consumer markets,Shanghai urgently needs to consider the main factors affecting electricity demand and their changing trends.The CGE model is used to predict the macro economy and industrial structure of Shanghai City based on the"Double Carbon"policy goals and Shanghai's key industrial development policies,and the terminal energy consumption method and sub-sector analysis method are used to predict the change trend of overall and sub-sector power demand in Shanghai City in the medium and long term.The study found that terminal energy consumption in Shanghai's entire society will peak in 2030 in accordance with policy goals,while power demand will peak in 2050.Since then,industrial power demand will gradually decline with the in-crease of electrification rate,and the growth rate of transportation and construction power demand will slow down and enter the downward channel.Therefore,it is recommended that Shanghai further accelerate the transformation of its industrial structure,focus on carbon neutrality actions in key areas,and accelerate the transformation of green technologies.At the same time,the power supply sector also needs to rationally deploy according to the trend of power demand to ensure the smooth realization of the"Double Carbon"goal.
Carbon PeakingCarbon NeutralityElectric Power DemandEnergy StructureIndustrial Devel-opment
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