考虑减排对能源需求潜在影响的沿海城市碳减排路径动态优化
Dynamic Optimization of Carbon Reduction Pathways in Coastal Metropolises Considering Hidden Influence of Decarbonization on Energy Demand
肖银璟 1张迪 2魏娟 2葛睿 3陈达伟 1杨桂兴 4叶志亮1
作者信息
- 1. 上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海 200240
- 2. 湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,长沙 410082
- 3. 国家电力调度控制中心,北京 100031
- 4. 国家电网新疆电力有限公司,乌鲁木齐 830000
- 折叠
摘要
制定合理的沿海城市碳减排规划是实现全球碳目标的关键环节.碳减排将改变城市气候并影响能源需求,这两者都会影响碳减排路径的优化结果.现有扩容规划模型考虑了直接减排贡献并能解决大部分能源系统长期碳减排路径规划问题,但新型电力系统的建设也会通过改变热岛强度等微气候因素间接影响碳排放.考虑碳排放和热排放变化对空调等负荷需求的潜在影响机理,结合扩容规划与碳排放峰值预测,给出沿海城市碳减排路径动态优化方法.以上海浦东地区作为算例,证实所提方法能有效降低碳减排估计成本,并根据仿真结果对沿海城市碳减排提出建议.
Abstract
Setting a reasonable carbon reduction plan in coastal metropolises is the key part to reach the global carbon target.Carbon reduction will change urban climate and influence energy demand,both of which affect the optimization results of carbon reduction pathways.Current generation expansion optimization models consider direct abatement contribution and solve most problems of planning for long-term carbon emission reduction in energy systems.However,the construction of new type power systems also indirectly impacts carbon emissions by changing microclimate factors such as heat island intensity.By combining generation expansion with carbon emission prediction model,the proposed approach in this paper considers the hidden mechanism of carbon and heat emission change on air-conditioning loads and dynamically optimizes the carbon reduction pathways in coastal metropolises.Taking Pudong Area in Shanghai as an example,the estimated cost of carbon reduction is reduced by the proposed approach.Some suggestions for the carbon reduction in coastal metropolises are made according to the simulation results.
关键词
动态优化/碳减排/扩容规划/微气象/负荷预测Key words
dynamic optimization/carbon emission reduction/power system planning/microclimate/load forecasting引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据