The optimization of human capital structure is an important path to expanding the middle-income group.Using CFPS(2016-2020)data and machine learning methods,this study calculates the proportion of the middle-income group at national and provincial levels based on individual-level wage income,and empirically analyzes the impact of the optimization of human capital structure on the change in the proportion of the middle-income group.The main conclusions are as follows.First,the proportion of the low-income group in China,whether at the national or provincial level,generally showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2019,while the proportion of the middle-income group basically showed an upward trend.However,China has not yet formed an"olive-shaped"income distribution pattern,and the proportion of the middle-income group is still relatively low.Second,the empirical results show that the advanced human capital structure has a significant positive effect on the growth of the proportion of the middle-income group;that is to say,for every 1 unit increase in the optimization of human capital structure,the proportion of the middle-income group will increase by 2.9％.After conducting endogeneity and robustness tests,this conclusion remains steady.Third,the optimization of human capital structure has a significant positive impact on the central and western regions,and the impact on the central region is the greatest.The level of optimization of human capital structure mainly expands the middle-income group by reducing the degree of labor misallocation,strengthening urban agglomeration,and increasing the thickness of the labor market.The effect of the improvement of human capital on the income increase of the middle-income group has differences in the impact on the income of the middle-income group at different quantiles,showing an"inverted U-shaped"feature.In the future,China should attach importance to improving the level of optimization of human capital structure and formulate corresponding policies according to regional differences,so as to effectively expand the scale of the middle-income group.
关键词
中等收入群体/人力资本结构高级化/工资性收入/机器学习法
Key words
middle-income group/optimization of human capital structure/wage income/machine learning method
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