Joinpoint regression analysis of hand,foot,and mouth disease trends in Zhangjiakou City,Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022
[Objective]To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Zhangjiakou City,Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022,so as to provide a basis for HFMD prevention,control,and evaluation of intervention effectiveness.[Methods]HFMD data of Zhangjiakou City from 2013 to 2022 were collected.Descriptive statistics and the Joinpoint regression model were used to analyze the trend of the epidemic.[Results]The incidence of HFMD in Zhangjiakou was predicted to decrease with APC=-14.86%in 2013‒2022.The top five regions with the highest incidence showed varying trends:Qiaodong District(APC=-26.21%),Qiaoxi District(APC=-18.29%),Xuanhua District(APC=-14.28%),Chicheng District(APC=-18.68%),and Zhuolu County(APC=51.43%in 2013‒2016,APC=-14.27%in 2016‒2022),indicating a downward trend.Three age groups showed an upward trend in incidence:the 0-year-old group(APC=-42.82%in 2013‒2016,APC=16.54%in 2016‒2022),the 7-year-old group(AAPC=9.60%),and the 9-year-old group(AAPC=12.76%).HFMD cases occurred throughout the year,peaking from June to August,with July being the most significant month.The male-to-female ratio was 1.40∶1,with no statistical difference(χ2=5.932,P>0.05).A high incidence was in children under 5 years old,with those aged 1‒4 years being the main affected group.In terms of occupation,scattered children(6 245 cases,57.65%)and preschool children(3 653 cases,33.72%)were the most affected.A total of 504 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported,with a detection rate of 4.65%(504/10 832).The composition of confirmed cases included CoxA 16(193 cases,38.29%),EV71(75 cases,14.88%),and other enteroviruses(236 cases,46.83%).[Conclusion]From 2013 to 2022,HFMD in Zhangjiakou City showed a downward trend with clear seasonal,regional,and occupational distributions.It is suggested that epidemic monitoring should be strengthened,etiological detection should be enhanced,and education efforts in key areas should be improved.High-incidence counties should analyze data and conduct risk assessments effectively.
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