Research on the impacts of trade agreements on global trade flows:Based on complex network perspective
This research explores the impacts of regional trade agreements on global trade flows from the perspective of symbiotic evolution.By using network analysis method on 18 years of two-ways(including import and export)of trade flow network matrixes of 136 countries/regions of the world from 2002 to 2019,the study finds that:1)Due to the mechanism of the preferential attachment,the global trade pattern obeys the classic law of power distribution,mov-ing from"flat head"to"steep tail"from 2002 to 2019,which results in the clustering phenome-non of small world networks.2)The structure of the global trade network has evolved from the dual pillars led respectively by the U.S.and Germany in 2002 to the tripartite forces of China,the U.S.,and Germany.The matching effect drives many peripheral countries and regions to"unite together"and then gradually integrate into the three forces through"preferential attach-ment",promoting the global trade flow entering a more open world.3)Intergovernmental trade agreements,as the"visible hand"of governments,can explain 19.2％of changes in the global trade,which indicates that collaborative cooperation between countries has positive impacts on the evolution of the world trading system.4)Under the influence of network externalities,multi-lateral trade agreements demonstrate greater impetus than bilateral trade agreements to global trade.Countries initiating into the multilateral trade agreements conform not only with the gen-eral trend of economic recovery after the epidemic,but it is also beneficial to the bright prospect of a community with a shared future for mankind.
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