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全球新能源汽车贸易网络动态演化特征及影响因素研究

Dynamic evolution characteristics and influencing factors of global new energy vehicle trade network

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我国新能源汽车的国际化关乎汽车工业的持续发展,因此整体把握新能源汽车国际贸易结构及演化趋势十分必要.基于社会网络分析法,以2017-2020年全球新能源汽车贸易数据为样本,研究贸易网络的动态演化特征,并运用QAP方法分析影响贸易网络的因素.研究发现:(1)全球新能源汽车贸易网络密度和互惠度较低,关联度大;(2)核心度、中心性高且内外贸易均活跃的国家高度重合,形成了以美、德、比利时、日、韩等国为中心的北美、欧洲、东亚三块核心区域且区域协同发展效果显著;(3)经济差异有助于贸易关系的建立但作用渐弱,产业链互补有助于贸易强度提升,协调政策和形成共识较关税优惠对贸易的作用更显著,地理距离阻碍贸易且作用稳定.疫情加速了原本的趋势并显著提升了陆地邻接这一因素的影响.因此我国政府应加强区域合作,加大产业链及基础设施投资建设力度,注意风险防范,重视政策导向.
The internationalization of China's new energy vehicles is related to the sustainable development of the automobile industry,so it is necessary to grasp the international trade struc-ture of new energy vehicles.Based on the social network analysis method,the global new ener-gy vehicle trade data from 2017 to 2020 were selected as samples to study the structural charac-teristics of the trade network and analyze the influencing factors of trade network with the Qua-dratic Assignment Procedure(QAP)method.The study shows that:(1)The global new energy vehicle trade network has low density and reciprocity & high correlation;(2)There is a high over-lap of countries with high centrality,high core degree and active both internal and external trade in the network,and three core regions-Europe,North America and East Asia based on the Unit-ed States,Germany,Belgium,Japan and South Korea-have been formed with significant region-al synergies;(3)Economic differences contribute to the establishment of trade relations but play a weakening role,industry chain complementarity contributes to trade intensity,harmonization of policies and consensus building have a more significant effect on trade than tariff preferences,and geographical distance hinders trade establishment and plays a stable role.The COVID-19 has accelerated the above trends and significantly increased the impact of the factor of land prox-imity.Therefore,the Chinese government should strengthen regional cooperation,increase infra-structure investment,and apply policies flexibly to avoid over-reliance on subsidies.

new energy vehicle tradeinternational trade networkcomplex networkssocial network theoryQAP method

齐玮、李启昊

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华北电力大学经济管理系,保定 071000

新能源汽车贸易 国际贸易网络 复杂网络 社会网络理论 QAP方法

河北省社会科学基金项目

HB19YJ011

2024

世界地理研究
中国地理学会

世界地理研究

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.232
ISSN:1004-9479
年,卷(期):2024.33(2)
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