Measurement and analysis of geopolitical risk in Southeast Asian countries based on GDELT event data
With the continuous promotion of China's"going out"strategy and the Belt and Road Initiative,the demand for overseas geopolitical risk research is also increasing.Southeast Asia is a key region for the Belt and Road Initiative,with a complicated geographical environ-ment and frequent geopolitical incidents.Based on geopolitical events,this paper proposes a geopolitical risk measurement method,taking Southeast Asia as an example to measure and ana-lyze its spatio-temporal characteristics.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1)Geopolit-ical risks in Southeast Asia are generally stable and controllable,but the spatio-temporal differ-ences are large.It is relatively high in the Philippines and Myanmar,low in Laos,Singapore,Timor-Leste and Vietnam,and fluctuating in other countries.(2)The geopolitical risks of Indo-nesia,Cambodia,Thailand and Malaysia are more affected by internal events than those of the other five countries.Internal problems need to be solved urgently.Brunei,Laos,Timor-Leste,Vietnam and Singapore have high geopolitical risks affected by external events and relatively sta-ble internal environments.(3)The geopolitical risks of South Asian countries are much more af-fected by external events than internal events,among which external events mainly come from countries outside the region such as the United States,China and Australia,while countries with-in the region account for a relatively low proportion,mainly from Thailand and Malaysia.The results of this study provide scientific support for grasping the geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia and ensuring the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.
geopoliticsgeopolitical riskrisk evaluationGDELTSoutheast Asia
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
