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基于百度指数的乡村旅游需求时空特征及其影响因素研究

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互联网搜索行为是用户需求和行为惯性在虚拟空间的直观表达,为长时间序列、大空间尺度旅游需求分析提供了新的视角.论文以2011-2020年我国31个省级行政区乡村旅游9个关键词的百度指数为数据基础,利用空间自相关、地理探测器等方法分析了我国乡村旅游需求的时空演变特征及其影响因素.研究发现:(1)乡村旅游需求十年间总体呈"倒U"形变化形态,并表现出快速发展期、波动发展期的非线性阶段特征;年内呈现出"两峰两谷"变化特征,淡、旺季和周末效应比较明显.(2)乡村旅游需求整体上呈集聚分布状态,集聚效应随年际变化略有波动;局部空间上呈现东高西低的梯度递减格局,且此特征在十年间基本保持稳定.(3)5个因子对乡村旅游需求时空特征有持续显著的影响,其解释力表现为地区生产总值>星级饭店数量>人口总量>公路密度>国家级乡村旅游点数量,其他因子解释力相对较低或年际变动较大.论文借助网络大数据从宏观层面揭示了乡村旅游需求的时空演变规律及其影响因素,为优化产业布局、推进乡村旅游供需有效对接等提供了理论指导和实践借鉴.
Research on spatio-temporal characteristics and its influencing factors of rural tourism demand based on Baidu Index
Internet search behavior is an intuitive expression of user needs and behavioral iner-tia in a virtual space,providing a new perspective for long-term sequenced and broad-scale spa-tial tourism demand analysis.Based on the Baidu search index of 9 keywords of rural tourism in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper tried to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics and in-fluencing factors of rural tourism demand by means of spatial autocorrelation and geographic de-tector.The research found that:① As for temporal characteristics of rural tourism demand,it shows an"inverted U-shaped"change pattern during 2011-2020,and exhibits non-linear phases characterized by periods of rapid development and fluctuating development.It shows"two peaks and two valleys"during the year,and the characteristics of off-season/peak season,and weekend effects are obvious.② In terms of spatial distribution,it is basically in clustered distri-bution,and the clustered effect fluctuates slightly each year.The local spatial pattern shows the characteristics of declining gradients in which the east is high and the west is low,and it remains basically stable during 2011-2020.③ There are five persistently significant influencing factors,and their explanatory power is as follows:GDP>number of star-rated hotels>total population>highway density>country-level rural tourist spots.Other factors have relatively low explanatory power or have great changes in ten years.This research reveals the spatio-temporal pattern of ru-ral tourism demand and its influencing factors from the macro level with the help of network big data,which provides theoretical guidance and practical reference for optimizing industrial layout and promoting effective matching of supply and demand.

rural tourism demandspatio-temporal characteristicsBaidu Indexgeographic detectorinfluencing factor

刘海朦、田小波、曹婷婷

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华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉 430079

中国旅游研究院武汉分院,武汉 430079

郑州科技学院工商管理学院,郑州 450064

乡村旅游需求 时空特征 百度指数 地理探测器 影响因素

国家社会科学基金中央高校基本科研业务费专项华中师范大学项目中国旅游研究院(研究生)优奖计划

20CMZ033CCNU20BG003

2024

世界地理研究
中国地理学会

世界地理研究

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.232
ISSN:1004-9479
年,卷(期):2024.33(5)
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