首页|基于平等协商的跨境水资源初始分配研究——以澜沧江-湄公河流域为例

基于平等协商的跨境水资源初始分配研究——以澜沧江-湄公河流域为例

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跨境水资源分配是缓解水资源冲突、实现水资源有效治理和利用的核心问题.基于平等协商视角,利用协商谈判博弈模型刻画流域国间的合作路径.首先引入柔性权重思想,利用多准则决策模型建立跨境水资源公平合理分配模式.然后在此基础上,运用协商谈判博弈模型,近似模拟各流域国协商谈判过程,探寻公平合理、能被各流域国普遍认可的跨境水资源初始分配方案.并以澜沧江-湄公河流域为例进行实证分析,结果表明:①各流域国基于公平合理分配模式约束提出的谈判方案,体现了各流域国的利益诉求,但是各流域国理想水权分配比例之和不满足等于100%的约束条件,需要进行协商谈判,各自承担一定的水权损失,且各流域国承担的水权变化幅度在0~5.02%之间;②不同偏好情景下的谈判优化后跨境水权分配方案,平均满意度均在90%以上,相比各流域国提出的谈判方案,具有更高的满意度和稳定性,说明基于主体满意度函数来寻找水资源分配的最优解,兼顾了各流域国的利益诉求,可以提高跨境水权分配方案的可接受性;③不同分配情景下,均是中国和泰国得到的跨境水权分配比例较高,而缅甸得到的分配比例较低,从谈判前后各流域国分配比例变化率和流域国平均满意度来看,偏好公平情景和偏好效率情景下的跨境水权分配方案是各流域国争议较小的方案.通过该研究,以期提高跨境水资源分配的合理性与可行性,为减少跨境水资源冲突提供技术支撑.
Research on initial allocation of transboundary water resources by the vision of equal consultation:Take the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as an example
Transboundary water resource allocation is the core issue to alleviate water resourc-es conflicts and realize effective management and utilization of water resources.Based on the perspective of equal negotiation,we used the Negotiation Game Model to describe the coopera-tion path among basin countries.Firstly,we introduced the idea of flexible weight to establish a fair and reasonable allocation mode by using a Multi-criteria Decision Model.Then,we used the negotiation game model to approximate the negotiation process of each basin country,to explore a fair and reasonable initial allocation scheme of transboundary water resources that can be gen-erally recognized by each basin country.Taking the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB)as an example for empirical analysis,the results show that:① The negotiation scheme proposed by each basin country based on the constraint of fair and reasonable allocation mode reflects the in-terest demands of each basin country,but the sum of the ideal water rights allocation ratio of each basin country does not meet the constraint condition equal to 100%,so negotiation is re-quired.Each country bears a certain loss of water rights,and the reduction of water rights borne by each basin country ranges from zero to 5.02%;② The average satisfaction of the optimized allocation scheme under different preference scenarios is above 90%,which has higher satisfac-tion and stability compared with the negotiation scheme proposed by each basin country.It indi-cates that finding the optimal solution of water resource allocation based on the subject satisfac-tion function considers the interest demands of each basin country,which can improve the ac-ceptability of the transboundary water rights allocation scheme;③ Under different allocation scenarios,the proportion of transboundary water rights allocated to China and Thailand is higher,while the proportion allocated to Myanmar is lower.From the perspective of the change rate and the average satisfaction of each basin country before and after the negotiation,the transboundary water rights allocation scheme under the preference equity scenario and preference efficiency scenario is the less controversial scheme for each basin country.This study aims to improve the rationality and feasibility of transboundary water resource allocation and provide support for re-ducing water resource conflicts.

equal consultationtransboundary water resourcesinitial allocationNegotiation Game ModelLMRB

李芳、吴凤平、赵越、陈向南

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常州大学商学院,常州 213159

河海大学商学院,南京 211100

苏州市社会科学院,苏州 215004

江苏开放大学商学院,南京 210036

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平等协商 跨境水资源 初始分配 协商谈判博弈模型 澜湄流域

国家社会科学基金青年项目国家社会科学基金重大项目国家社会科学基金一般项目

22CJY03117ZDA06419BJL088

2024

世界地理研究
中国地理学会

世界地理研究

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.232
ISSN:1004-9479
年,卷(期):2024.33(6)