The spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of urban shrinkage:A comparative study of East Germany and Northeast China
It is of great significance to carry out accurate identification of urban shrinkage and comparative analysis of its influencing factors in large national regions,to reduce the error based on administrative area identification.By constructing the VANUI index,calculating the one-di-mensional linear regression coefficient of the DN value of night light and the WorldPop popula-tion grid data,and based on the overlay of the regression coefficient of the DN value of night light,and the regression coefficient of the WorldPop population grid data,the urban areas of East Germany and Northeast China in the two stages of 2000-2009 and 2010-2018 were divided into four types:absolute growth,smart shrinkage,negative growth and absolute shrinkage.This pa-per then studied and compared the spatio-temporal distribution and transformation path of the two stages of absolute shrinkage and smart shrinkage in the two regions,and constructed a panel regression model from population growth,scientific and technological development level,medi-cal service level and other aspects to conduct a comparative analysis of the influencing factors of the two stages of urban shrinkage in the two regions.The results show that the absolute shrink-age areas in the two regions have a great similarity in spatiotemporal distribution and transforma-tion path;the smart shrinkage areas are similar in spatiotemporal distribution,but different in transformation path;the absolute shrinkage areas in the two regions and two stages is relatively small;the mechanism of population growth in the two regions has both similarities and differenc-es,and has different connotations due to differences in national conditions.This study shows that:(1)Urban shrinkage areas have the potential for short-term growth,and their development rights should be treated equally;(2)The absolute shrinking areas should be given special atten-tion and governance,while the smart shrinking areas should be regarded as a reasonable develop-ment model for urban shrinking areas;(3)Continuously improving the level of medical,elderly care services and research investment,steadily promoting the transformation of living environ-ment and infrastructure in existing areas,and reasonably controlling incremental development can help alleviate the phenomenon of urban shrinkage.
urban shrinkagepopulationEast GermanyNortheast Chinaurban area
万方数据
维普
