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变电站地震灾损评估方法与应急资源调配研究

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为提高震后电力系统灾损评估的时效性,快速生成应急资源调配方案,辅助电力应急指挥决策,提升应急处置效率.本文基于脆弱性理论构建了110 kV和220 kV变电站地震灾损评估模型,结合NewMark理论建立了地震诱发滑坡风险定量化分析模型,提出了考虑次生滑坡灾害影响的应急资源调配方法.针对某区域电网开展了地震灾害模拟与实例分析,定量评估了 3 所不同变电站在 6级、7 级和 8 级地震场景下损毁概率.结果表明:各变电站在不同地震破坏下损毁概率范围为 7%~26%,而震级与震中距是影响变电站震损程度的主要原因;评估计算了地震诱发滑坡概率及道路风险值,综合考虑该区域电网附近应急人员驻点、仓库位置以及道路风险值,给出了 7 级地震场景下面向各变电站应急队伍与应急物资需求的应急资源调配路径最优化规划.本文的研究可为震后资源调配与指挥决策提供辅助与支撑.
Research on the seismic damage assessment for substation and emergency resource allocation
In order to improve the timeliness of post-earthquake disaster damage assessment,generate emergency resource allocation plans high-efficiently,assist emergency command and decision-making,and improve the efficiency of power emergency response,this paper builds damage assessment models for 110 kV and 220 kV substation based on the vulnerability theory;A quantitative analysis model of earthquake-induced landslide risk is established based on NewMark theory;An emergency resource allocation method considering the impact of secondary landslide disaster is proposed.The earthquake disaster simulation and case analysis were carried out for a regional power grid,and the damage probability of three substations under the earthquake scenarios of magnitude 6,7 and 8 was quantitatively evaluated.The results show that the probability of damage to each substation under different earthquake damage ranges from 7%to 26%,and the magnitude and epicenter distance are the main factors affecting the degree of substation damage;The probability of earthquake-induced landslides and the risk value of roads are given,and the optimal planning of emergency resource allocation path under the magnitude 7 earthquake scenario is given by comprehensively considering the location of emergency personnel,warehouses and the risk value of roads near the power grid in the region.The research in this paper can provide assistance and support for post-earthquake resource allocation and command decision-making.

earthquakesubstationdisaster damage assessmentlandslideemergency resource allocation

严屹然、冯杰、徐希源、于振

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国网智能电网研究院有限公司,北京 102209

电力网络安全防护与监测技术实验室,北京 102209

地震 变电站 灾损评估 滑坡 应急资源调配

国家电网总部管理科技项目

5700-202333313A-1-1-ZN

2024

世界地震工程
中国地震局工程力学研究所 中国力学学会

世界地震工程

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.523
ISSN:1007-6069
年,卷(期):2024.40(2)
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