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进口经历与企业出口市场退出概率偏高之谜

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企业出口市场的稳定与拓展是国家高度关注的重大现实问题.基于2000-2016年中国企业进出口数据,本文考察了企业从特定市场的进口经历对企业从该市场出口退出的影响.研究结果发现,与一般认知不同,中国企业从特定市场的进口经历显著提高了企业从该市场出口退出的概率.其原因是,企业的进口经历会降低出口沉没成本,导致企业的出口滞后性减弱和出口试错效应增强,进而提高企业的出口市场退出概率,与此同时,企业的进口经历也会通过信息壁垒降低机制和进出口市场同期重叠机制降低企业的出口市场退出概率,但是,提高效应大于降低效应.进一步分析表明,在企业进入出口市场初期以及民营企业、中西部地区企业和小型出口企业的提高效应较大,当企业具有相似市场的出口经历时,提高效应会减小.本文研究为解释企业退出出口市场行为提供了新的视角,也为国家和企业积极开拓国际市场、优化国际市场布局提供了政策指导.
The Puzzle of the Excessive Export Market Exit of Firms with Specific Import Market Experience
Excessive export market exit remains an unsolved puzzle.It is now widely acknowledged that international experience contributes to the survival of exports and mitigates export market exit.This study comprehensively explores the effect that a firm's market-specific import experience has on export market exit.Using Chinese customs data from between 2000 and 2016,on the one hand,the paper empirically finds that import experience increases the likelihood of an exporter's exit from the export market,which at first glance appears to be counterintuitive;on the other hand,it verifies the following three contrasting but not mutually exclusive mechanisms.(ⅰ)The market learning mechanism creates a diminishing impact;(ⅱ)the sunk cost reduction mechanism creates an increasing impact through both the reverse hysteresis and trial-and-error effects;and(ⅲ)the import-export market overlapping mechanism-a newly identified mechanism in the paper-has a decreasing impact through the risk hedging effect,and an increasing impact through the risk amplifying effect,with the former dominating.Further,it uncovers some heterogeneous and synergic effects of the import experience.The study findings revitalise the understanding of the import experience and export market exit,and provide new insights to exporters on how to make the most of import experiences to promote exports and diversify risk.

import market experienceexport market exitinformation barrierssunk costimport-export market overlapping

魏浩、涂悦

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北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院、国家进口研究中心 北京市海淀区新街口外大街19号 100875

北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

进口市场经历 出口市场退出 信息壁垒 沉没成本 进出口 市场重叠

国家社会科学基金重大项目

23ZDA050

2024

世界经济
中国世界经济学会,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

世界经济

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.733
ISSN:1002-9621
年,卷(期):2024.47(1)
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