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"一带一路"倡议的和平效应

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作为新时代具有国际公共产品属性的中国方案,"一带一路"倡议能否破解全球和平赤字备受各界关注.本文基于2006-2019年乌普萨拉冲突数据,构建多时点双重差分模型,考察了"一带一路"倡议对参与国内部冲突的影响.结果发现,"一带一路"倡议有效抑制了参与国内部冲突,并且随着一国参与时间的延长,抑制效应会边际递增.究其原因,一方面,"一带一路"倡议显著改善了参与国的就业和收入分配等民生状况,从而提高了民众参与冲突的机会成本,缓和了低收入群体的不满情绪,稳定了国内局势.另一方面,倡议秉持的"共商"理念得到了广泛实践和深入内化,使得参与国的协商民主水平显著提升,从而有效化解社会矛盾和分歧,国内政治生态持续向好,冲突随之明显减少.此外,"一带一路"倡议释放的和平效应在冲突规模、合作内容、参与国经济发展水平以及与美国政治关系等维度表现出较大异质性.本研究表明,"一带一路"倡议作为中国参与全球治理的具体实践平台,已成为维护世界和平稳定的强大动力和牢固纽带.
The Peace Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative
As a Chinese scheme with the attribute of international public goods in the new era,whether the Belt and Road Initiative can solve the global peace deficit has attracted attention from all walks of life.Based on Uppsala Conflict Data from 2006 to 2019,this paper constructs a multiple period DID model to test the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on internal conflicts in participating countries.The results show that the Belt and Road Initiative has effectively curbed the internal conflicts in participating countries,and with the extension of a country's participation time,this inhibitory effect increases marginally.The mechanism test shows that,on the one hand,the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly improved the employment,income distribution and other livelihood conditions of participating countries,thus increasing the opportunity cost of people's participation in conflict,easing the dissatisfaction of low-income groups,and promoting more stability of the domestic situation.On the other hand,the concept of"mutual consultation"advocated by the Belt and Road Initiative has been widely practiced and deeply internalized,significantly improving the level of consultative democracy in participating countries.As a result,social conflicts and differences can be effectively resolved,and the domestic political environment continues to improve,leading to a significant reduction in conflicts.In addition,the peace effect of the the Belt and Road Initiative shows great heterogeneity in the dimensions of conflict scale,cooperation content,economic development level of participating countries,and political relations between participating countries and the United States.The research results of this paper show that the Belt and Road Initiative,as a concrete practice platform for China's participation in global governance,has become a powerful driving force and a solid link for maintaining world peace and stability.

the Belt and Road Initiativedomestic conflictlivelihood statedeliberative democracymultiple period DID

曹国强、谢建国、廖陈成

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南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心 南京大学商学院江苏省南京市鼓楼区金银街16号 210008

"一带一路"倡议 国内冲突 民生状况 协商民主 多时点双重差分

国家自然科学基金教育部社会科学研究项目江苏省社会科学基金

7207306220YJA79007419EYB003

2024

世界经济
中国世界经济学会,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

世界经济

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.733
ISSN:1002-9621
年,卷(期):2024.47(6)
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