Study on the Impact of EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China's trade:GTAP-E model simulation analysis based on dy-namic recursion
With the formal establishment of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)legislation in December 2022,China-the world's largest exporter and CO2 emitter,is poised to face increased trade costs,potentially leading to a decline in exports to the Europe-an Union.In order to thoroughly investigate the practical implications for Chinese trade,this paper,based on the specific provisions of the final CBAM legislation,sets up five scenarios of the EU imposing"carbon tariffs"and two scenarios of China implementing countermeasures in the form of"carbon tariffs".These scenarios are simulated using the GTAP-E model for prediction.Based on this,the paper still explores the CBAM's role in restraining carbon emissions,as well as the feasibility and necessity of China implementing countermeasures.According to the simulation results of GTAP-E model,it is found that:(1)the export loss of China to the EU is greater than the actual export loss of China due to the export trade di-version effect caused by the implementation of EU CBAM.(2)The impact of EU CBAM on the trade of different countries and industries is hetero-geneous:in the short term,the negative effects on exports are limited to products covered by CBAM,while in the long term,exports across all in-dustries will be suppressed.Among all countries and industries,high carbon-emitting countries and industries are most severely affected,especially due to the"double transfer"of trade caused by China's high carbon intensity in various industries,whose exports have deteriorated most significant-ly.(3)In terms of emission reduction,developing a domestic carbon market in the case of extremely low carbon leakage is more effective than"carbon tariffs,"and the imposition of"carbon tariffs"has a greater inhibitory effect on the economy than its emission reduction effect.(4)The necessity for implementing countermeasures is relatively low.On one hand,when China implements countermeasures independently,the export im-provement of various industries is minimal;on the other hand,in a scenario where countermeasures are globally implemented,China will face even greater export losses.
万方数据
维普
