The Economic effect of Industrial Chain Reconstruction in East Asia:Counterfactual Analysis Based on Global Multi-re-gion Input-output Model
Under the new circumstances of the decoupling between China and the United States and the impact of the pandemic,the re-construction of the industrial chain in East Asia has attracted attention from all walks of life.However,most of the current studies on industrial chain reconstruction in East Asia use qualitative methods to study its causes and trends,and lack quantitative analy-sis on the impact of reconstruction.In this paper,the global multi-regional input-output model was used to conduct a counterfac-tual simulation analysis on the economic effects of regional industrial chain reconstruction in East Asia,and the robustness analy-sis was conducted.Specifically,this paper quantifies the impact of the transfer of low-end industries from China to ten ASEAN countries and high-end industries from Japan and South Korea to China,as well as the comprehensive effect of China's dual role of industrial output and input,and analyzes the industry-level impact of industrial chain reconstruction in East Asia through up-stream and downstream industrial association.It is found that the impact of China's capital-intensive industries transferring out is much greater than that of labor-intensive industries transferring out,and the lifting effect of China's technology-intensive indus-tries undertaking Japan and South Korea on its GDP is limited.There are obvious differences in the capacity of the ten ASEAN countries to undertake Chinese industries;countries that have benefited more from industrial transfer can effectively withstand the impact of the pandemic.Industrial association amplifies the impact of regional industrial chain reconstruction in East Asia.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
