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中国FTA原产地规则对企业出口行为的影响研究

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企业是促进国家间贸易的基本因素,微观企业出口选择将影响宏观经济形势.文章首先构建动态原产地规则限制指数测算体系,测算中国自由贸易区原产地规则限制程度;其次,在Melitz(2003)异质性企业模型框架下分析原产地规则对企业出口行为的影响机理,并基于中国工业企业数据库和海关数据库匹配数据,利用分样本回归和样本切割法对影响机理进行验证.基准回归结果表明,原产地规则限制性降低了企业向自贸协定伙伴国的出口倾向,原产地规则限制性增加,企业向自贸协定伙伴国出口比重降低.机制检验结果表明,原产地规则限制性增加了企业生产成本,并且当原产地规则限制性所增加的成本超出企业通过自贸协定获取的额外利润时,原产地规则限制性对企业生产行为不再有影响.
Research on the Impact of China's FTA Rules of Origin on Enterprises'Export Behavior:Based on Micro Enterprise Data
Enterprises are the basic factor to promote inter-country trade,and micro-enterprise export choices will affect the macroeco-nomic situation.In this paper,we first construct a dynamic rules of origin restriction index measurement system to measure the degree of rules of origin restriction in China's free trade zone.Secondly,it analyzes the mechanism of the influence of rules of ori-gin on the export behavior of enterprises under the framework of Melitz's(2003)heterogeneous enterprise model,and verifies the influence mechanism based on the matched data from China's industrial and customs databases by using the split-sample regres-sion and the sample-cutting method.The results of the benchmark regression show that the restrictiveness of the rules of origin re-duces the propensity of enterprises to export to FTA partner countries,and the increase of the restrictiveness of the rules of origin reduces the proportion of enterprises exporting to FTA partner countries.The results of the mechanism test show that the restric-tiveness of the rules of origin increases the production costs of enterprises,and that when the increased costs of the rules of origin restrictiveness exceed the additional profits obtained by enterprises through the FTA,the restrictiveness of the rules of origin no longer has an impact on the production behavior of enterprises.

薛振翔、成新轩

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中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院

河北大学经济学院

原产地规则 自由贸易区 出口行为

国家社会科学基金重大项目河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目

2022&ZD178ZD202417

2024

世界经济研究
上海社科院世界经济研究所

世界经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.401
ISSN:1007-6964
年,卷(期):2024.(4)
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