Perspective on the"Dual Circulation"of China's Agricultural Product Trade Network:Endogenous Mechanisms and Relative Importance
Based on the data of China's inter-regional input-output tables in 2012,2015 and 2017 and the bilateral trade flow data of ag-ricultural products in the CEPII database from 2002 to 2020,this paper systematically measures the proportion relationship and structural characteristics of China's domestic circulation and international circulation from the perspective of"dual circulation"and empirically tests the impact mechanism and relative importance of domestic circulation and international circulation with the latest development of Stochastic Actor-oriented Model(SAOM).The results show that in addition to the traditional exogenous fac-tors,a series of endogenous structural effects,such as reciprocity effect,transitive triplet effect,in-degree popularity effect and out-in degree assortativity effect,are crucial to the"Dual Circulation"development of agricultural trade.The dominance of core exporters or export provinces and the passive position faced by core importers or import provinces have led to food security prob-lems.The relative importance of its endogenous structural effect accounts for 50％and 61％in the international and domestic circulation,respectively,both close to or more than half of the proportion,further weakening the importance of traditional exoge-nous factors in the existing research conclusions.The difference analysis shows that there is heterogeneity in the relative impor-tance of endogenous structural effects and exogenous factors for different types of agricultural products or consumption types,espe-cially the in-degree popularity effect and out-in degree assortativity effect.The conclusions of this paper provide new ideas and new methods for promoting the"double circulation"development pattern of China's agricultural product trade network,realizing the international circulation driven by domestic circulation,and reducing the dependence on import trade of a single country.
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