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内外销耦合协调如何提升企业出口韧性:内在机制与中国经验

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文章在对内外销耦合协调如何影响企业出口韧性的理论分析基础上,利用中国企业微观数据进行实证检验.结果表明:无论是抵抗期还是恢复期,内外销耦合协调对企业出口韧性都具有显著促进作用,在控制内生性、改变测度方法后这一结论依然成立;内外销耦合协调对国有企业、一般贸易企业和中西部企业出口韧性的促进效果更强;内外销耦合协调主要通过降低经营风险和培育高层次竞争优势提升企业出口韧性.拓展研究发现,单纯依赖"出口转内销"提升企业出口韧性有局限性,企业销售结构中内销占比需要根据经济发展不同阶段进行适应性调整;此外,"有为政府"在内外销耦合协调提升企业出口韧性的过程中具有"两面性",在抵御期内"有为政府"可以降低"市场失灵"的影响,进而提升企业出口韧性,但在恢复期内政府过度干预反而会弱化企业出口韧性.文章认为,在新发展格局下,既要加快畅通国内国际循环,又要厘清政府与市场的边界,提高内外销耦合协调水平,进而增强企业出口韧性.
How Does Coupling Coordination of Domestic and Foreign Sales Enhance Firm's Export Resilience:Mechanism and Evidence from China
Based on the theoretical analysis of how the coupling coordination of domestic and foreign sales(hereafter referred to as CCDF)affects the firm's export resilience,this paper makes an empirical test by using micro data of Chinese enterprises.The re-sults show that the CCDF has a significant positive effect on firm's export resilience in both the periods of resistance and recovery.This conclusion is still significantly robust with controlled endogeneity and different measurement methods.From the sub-sam-ples,CCDF has a greater promoting effect on firm's export resilience of state-owned firms,general trade firms and firms in the central and western regions of China.In addition,reducing operating risk and cultivating high-level competitive advantages are two main influence channels for CCDF to enhance firm's export resilience.Further research shows that relying solely on replacing export with domestic sales has limitations for enhancing firm's export resilience,and the proportion of domestic sales in the firm's sales structure needs to be adjusted adaptively according to the developing stages of macroeconomic.Moreover,in the period of resistance,"Promising Government"can reduce the impact of"market failure"and thus enhance firm's export resilience;but in the period of recovery,the overwhelming government intervention leads to market segmentation,which will weaken firm's export resilience.Therefore,under the new development pattern of"Dual Circulation",it is important to smooth the flow of domestic and international circulation,clarify the boundary between the government and the market,and improve the coupling coordination level of domestic and foreign sales of firms,so as to enhance firm's export resilience.

杜运苏、陈汉

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南京林业大学经济管理学院

南京财经大学国际经贸学院

内外销耦合协调 企业出口韧性 经营风险 高层次竞争优势

国家社会科学基金&&

20BJY09923BJL078

2024

世界经济研究
上海社科院世界经济研究所

世界经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.401
ISSN:1007-6964
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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