Measurement of China's Provincial Domestic and International Dual Circulation and Products'Circulation Characteristics:Based on the Value-added Decomposition of Gross Output
This article focuses on the deepening of production process division and market integration at China's provincial level under the new develop-ment pattern,considers both intermediate and final goods,applies value-added decomposition to gross output and puts forward a new calculation framework which can measure intra-regional,inter-regional,international circulation systematically.Using China's multi-regional input-output ta-bles of 2002,2005,2007,2010,2012,2015 and 2017,we found results as follows.From the perspective of circulation pattern,intra-regional circulation is the main circulation mode in central and western provinces such as Hubei,Hunan,Sichuan,Qinghai,Yunnan,and Gansu,which are geographically remote or rich in natural resources and have complete industrial system.The industries participating mainly in the intra-regional circulation are relatively consistent among regions,such as construction,service,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery.The inter-re-gional circulation is the main circulation mode for Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Henan,Hebei,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Chongqing,Hainan,which is geographically dispersed,and has been the main circulation mode in most provinces in China since 2012,reflecting the strengthening of re-gional market integration.From the perspective of development stages:from 2002 to 2007,the rapid growth of international circulation arouses in-tra-regional and inter-regional circulation,forming a regional production process division in which international circulation drives domestic circula-tion.From 2007 to 2015,the international circulation weakened and the domestic circulation,especially the inter-regional circulation,strength-ened,forming a domestic division of regional production which was dominated by the eastern provinces.From 2015 to 2017,the inter-regional cir-culation weakened,and the phenomenon that intra-regional circulation substitutes inter-regional circulation occurred among the eastern,central and western provinces,reflecting the intensified competition of domestic market and the dilemma of upgrading industrial structures in the eastern devel-oped provinces.From the perspective of products'category:intra-regional circulation is dominated by final goods,while inter-regional and interna-tional circulation are dominated by intermediate goods.The main factor driving domestic circulation of intermediate goods is the multiplier effect,which reflects the deepening of intra-regional production division,accounts for 61%and declines recently.The spillover effect of inter-regional pro-duction division plays an important role in domestic circulation and enhanced on the contrary.With the barrier effect of geographical distance on in-ter-regional division of production process weakened,the concentration degree of the two-way spillover effect decreases,indicating that institutional regional trade barriers become the key resistance of domestic circulation.Therefore,it is necessary to coordinate the regional division of labor and strengthen the construction of market institutions to reduce inter-regional trade costs and improve the efficiency of resource allocation.