The Effect and Influencing Factors of Dual Circulation to Promote High-Quality Full Employment in China:Analysis of World Input-Oc-cupancy-Output Model Based on Different Modes of Trade
How to utilize the domestic and international circulation to realize high-quality full employment in China is an important theoretical and practi-cal issue related to national economy and people's livelihood.This paper utilizes the 2003-2018 world input-output database and employment data-base provided by OECD,and adopts the world input-occupancy-output model and structural decomposition method to analyze the effect of the dual circulation on China's high-quality full employment and the factors affecting it based on different modes of trade.The study finds that,overall,the quantity and quality of employment in China have been improved from 2003 to 2018,and the role of general trade is greater than that of processing trade.The domestic circulation and dual circulation linkage are the main driving force for the improvement of the quantity and quality of employment in the general trade mode and the processing trade mode,respectively,and the role of the pure international circulation is smaller.China has ini-tially formed a high-quality full employment development model in the sense of which the domestic circulation is the mainstay,the international cir-culation is the supplement,and the dual circulation is the enabling force.The reason behind is that the positive effect of intermediate inputs and fi-nal demand is greater than the negative effect of labor productivity(labor compensation share),making the total effect positive.From a dynamic point of view,China's different modes of trade have contributed to the continuous improvement of the quality of employment,but the quantity of em-ployment has shown an increase and then a decrease.In terms of the three industries,the employment quantity in China shows the trend of transfer-ring from the primary industry to the secondary industry and the tertiary industry,which is in line with the Petty-Clark's Law,the employment quali-ty is steadily improving.Further empirical tests show that there is a significant promotion effect of dual circulation linkage on both the quantity and quality of employment in China.The findings of this paper help to provide theoretical support,empirical evidence and decision-making references for how to promote the synergistic development of the new development pattern of dual circulation and high-quality full employment through trade transformation and upgrading in China.
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