Will Climate Risk Exacerbate Risk Linkages in China's New Energy Industry Chain?
The green transformation of economy and society can not be separated from the smooth and healthy development of new energy indus-try,and in the context of the increasingly severe global climate change,it is important to study the impact of climate risk on the risk link-age of China's new energy industry chain.This is to prevent and mitigate potential risks and to enhance the resilience and security level of the industry chain.This paper introduces the TVP-VAR dynamic spillover index method to measure the risk linkage level of China's new energy industry chain.It empirically researches the impact of climate risk on the risk linkage of China's new energy industry chain and its time-varying mechanism from multi-dimensional perspectives,including natural disasters,energy transition and climate policy uncertainty.The study found that,firstly,there is a significant risk linkage effect in China's new energy industry chain.The sources of risk contagion mainly come from the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain,where the energy storage industry and the new energy automobile in-dustry are the main"risk drivers".The hydropower and nuclear energy industries in the upper reaches of the industry chain are the main"risk receivers".Secondly,the risk spillover in China's new energy industry chain presents a typical characteristic of being weak within the same link and strong across different links.There is a weak correlation within the upstream link of the industry chain and a strong cor-relation between the upstream and the middle and downstream of the industry chain.Thirdly,natural disasters,energy transition and cli-mate policy uncertainty can exacerbate the risk linkage of new energy industry chain,showing all dynamic characteristics that change over time.During the periods of frequent occurrence of natural disasters,accelerated energy transition,and significant increase in climate poli-cy uncertainty,the new energy industry chain is more sensitive to the impact of climate risk.Fourthly,compared with natural disasters and energy transition,climate policy uncertainty plays a stronger role in promoting the risk linkage of the new energy industry chain and exhib-its stronger continuity.
万方数据
维普
