"双碳"战略背景下的多尺度森林碳储量年度监测研究进展与思考
Research Progress in Multi-scale Annual Monitoring of Forest Carbon Storage Under the Background of"Dual Carbon"Goal
吴恒 1吕大伟 2汪圣云 2郑德祥 3孙帅超3
作者信息
- 1. 国家林业和草原局西南调查规划院,昆明 650031
- 2. 中国地质地调局应用地质调查中心,成都 610081
- 3. 福建农林大学林学院,福州 350002
- 折叠
摘要
高效监测森林碳储量是科学开展碳汇经营的前提.基于国家森林资源连续清查体系,全国林草生态综合监测优化了森林样地的样本组织方式,但在规定的精度和可靠性下需要调查的样本单元数仍然较多.文中提出,今后应基于多阶抽样框架,采用三相抽样方法,结合碳储量区域分布格局特点,进行多尺度复杂抽样设计;运用随机化推断辅助的模型抽样推断,解决规定精度下的有限样本量小区域估计、数据缺失和计量误差等分级控制出数的难题,并进行复杂抽样不确定性分析及可靠性评估;形成分级控制下的森林碳储量年度监测复杂抽样设计和数据推断技术体系,以满足低成本、快速、准确的多尺度森林碳储量年度出数需求,运用于碳汇计量监测和林长制督查考核等实际工作.
Abstract
Efficient monitoring of forest carbon storage is the premise for science-based forest management targeting increasing carbon storage.The national comprehensive ecological monitoring of forest and grassland has optimized the way to organize the selection of forest sample plots,based on the national continuous forest resources inventory,but the number of sample units that need to be investigated is still quite large,under the specified accuracy and reliability.It is proposed that the three-phase sampling method should be taken based on the multi-stage sampling framework to carry out multi-scale complex sampling design in consideration of the characteristics of regional distribution pattern of carbon storage,and the model sampling inference assisted by randomization inference should be used to solve the problems like the small-area estimation with limited sample size,data missing and measurement error under the specified precision and to conduct uncertainty analysis and reliability evaluation for this complex sampling design.These methods are expected to form a hierarchical control system comprising complex sampling design and data inference technology for annual monitoring of forest carbon storage,so as to meet the demand for the low-cost,rapid,accurate and multi-scale annual counting of forest carbon storage,which could be applied in practices such as carbon sink measurement/monitoring and forest chief scheme supervision.
关键词
森林碳储量/动态监测/分级控制Key words
forest carbon storage/dynamic monitoring/hierarchical control引用本文复制引用
基金项目
福建省林业科技攻关项目(2022FKJ02)
国家林业和草原局西南院科技项目(2023-09)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据