Carbon peaking and Carbon neutrality goals makes new requirements for the adjustment of China's energy structure.Natural gas,as the energy with the lowest carbon emissions in fossil energy,has become the key transitional energy in the process of energy transformation,and the security of natural gas supply and demand has become the core component of energy security.In order to reveal the current situation of China's natural gas supply and demand security,scientifically formulate planning plans to ensure the security of energy supply.This paper selects the safety influence factors of Chinese natural gas supply and demand safety from the four dimensions of resources,supply,demand and import,and establishes the evaluation index system of natural gas supply and demand safety.The Critic method is used to empower the indicators,and a multi-linear comprehensive evaluation model is constructed to calculate the safety degree of natural gas resources,supply safety degree,demand safety degree,import safety degree and comprehensive safety degree in China from 2012 to 2022.The results show that:(1)The key indicators affecting the security of China's natural gas supply and demand are reserve-production ratio,import concentration,self-sufficiency rate,and reserve index.(2)China's natural gas supply and demand security state is at level Ⅲ.Among them,the degree of resource security has increased year by year,from level Ⅳ to level Ⅱ;The change in supply security is characterized by a"W"shape,which remains at level Ⅲ;The demand safety degree tends to be stable and remains at level Ⅱ;The degree of import safety showed a downward trend,from level Ⅱ to level Ⅲ.The conclusion is that in order to ensure the steady improvement of natural gas supply and demand,it is necessary to continuously promote the plan of oil and gas storage and production,promote the diversified import channels of natural gas,and actively play the leading role of the government are the effective measures to improve the safety of China's natural gas supply and demand in China.
关键词
天然气/供需安全/Critic法/多元线性综合评价模型/安全评价/评价指标体系
Key words
natural gas/supply & demand safety/Critic method/multiple linear comprehensive evaluation model/safety evaluation/evaluation index system
维普
万方数据