首页|俄罗斯与全球石油贸易新趋势及对中国的启示

俄罗斯与全球石油贸易新趋势及对中国的启示

New trends in Russia and global oil trade and implications for China

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俄罗斯石油产业在全球能源市场中占据着举足轻重的地位,是其国内经济发展的重要支柱.2022年乌克兰危机爆发,美西方国家在能源、贸易、投资和金融等领域对俄罗斯实施多轮制裁,引发国际能源格局剧变.梳理俄罗斯石油生产与出口的基本情况,阐述俄罗斯在石油出口和能源投资方面面临的制裁及其应对措施,分析乌克兰危机对国际石油贸易和能源格局的影响,以及对中国石油贸易和加工等方面的影响.分析认为:①俄罗斯油气资源丰富,主要富集于西西伯利亚和伏尔加—乌拉尔油区,东部及北极地区将成为其勘探开发的重心,具有较大增产潜力.②针对西方制裁,俄罗斯采取了一系列反制措施.制裁对俄罗斯的影响较为有限,但对国际能源格局却产生了深远影响:重构国际石油贸易流向;国际油价高位震荡;欧盟在谋求化石能源多元化供应的同时,加快能源转型步伐.③制裁背景下,中国进口低价俄罗斯石油虽可获得一定经济效益,但制裁导致的国际石油供应紧张,推升中东、西非和南北美等地区的原油贴水和运费,增加中国进口石油的总成本.面对严峻复杂的国际能源形势,建议中国加强跨国基础设施建设,积极探索能源多元化供应路径,稳步推进能源转型,同时注重提升金融韧性.
Russia holds a pivotal position in the global energy market,and the oil industry is an important pillar of its domestic economic development.Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2022,the United States and other western countries have imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia in the fields of energy,trade,investment,and finance,triggering a dramatic change in the international energy landscape.Systematically review the basic situation of Russia's crude oil production and exports,explain the sanctions and response measures faced by Russia in oil exports and energy investment,analyze the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on international oil trade and energy patterns,as well as its impact on China's oil trade and processing.It is concluded that:(1)Russia is rich in oil and gas resources,mainly concentrated in western Siberia and Volga-Urals refueling areas.The eastern and Arctic regions will become the focus of its exploration and development,with great potential for increased production.(2)In response to Western sanctions,Russia has taken a series of countermeasures.The impact of sanctions on Russia is relatively limited,but it has had a profound impact on the international energy landscape:The international oil trade flow has undergone a restructuring;International oil prices fluctuate at high levels;The EU is seeking diversified supply of fossil fuels while accelerating the pace of energy transition.(3)Under the background of sanctions,although China's import of low-priced Russian oil can achieve certain economic benefits,the tight international oil supply caused by sanctions will push up crude oil discounts and freight rates in the Middle East,West Africa,North and South America,and increase the total cost of China's imported oil.Faced with the severe and complex international energy situation,it is recommended that China strengthen cross-border infrastructure construction,actively explore diversified energy supply paths,steadily promote energy transformation,and pay attention to enhancing financial resilience.

RussiaUkraine crisispetroleum industryenergy sanctionsinternational energy patternenergy security

程钰丹、巩明适、黄丽敏、张现策、韩伟、王铃、程薇

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中石化石油化工科学研究院有限公司,北京 100083

俄罗斯 乌克兰危机 石油产业 能源制裁 国际能源格局 能源安全

2024

世界石油工业
世界石油大会中国国家委员会 中国石油天然气集团公司经济技术研究中心

世界石油工业

影响因子:0.015
ISSN:1006-0030
年,卷(期):2024.31(6)