Oil and gas reserves are directly affect future oil and gas production.Therefore,it is crucial to strengthen the understanding and judgment of the growth trend of oil and gas reserves.The prediction of the growth trend of oil and gas reserves is a forward-looking prediction work,and its prediction results will affect the future exploration and investment direction of oil and gas.To systematically clarify the research progress and development status of predicting the growth trend of oil and gas reserves,this paper systematically reviewed the development process of oil and gas reserve-growth prediction methods,summarized various methods for predicting the growth trend of oil and gas reserves,discussed the main controlling factors affecting the prediction process,and proposed the future development direction of the reserve growth trend forecast of oil and gas based on the review of the literature.The results indicate that traditional forecast methodologies are mainly divided into statistical methods,expert evaluation methods,and analogy methods,which have different applicability,advantages,and disadvantages.The most widely used prediction methods are the multi-cycle Hubbert,multi-cycle Gauss model,and modified Arrington model in statistical methods.Such factors,including the geological conditions of hydrocarbon accumulation,the development of hydrocarbon geological theory and the breakthrough in exploration and development technology,exploration investment and exploration stage,and national policies,control the growth trend of oil and gas reserves.Finally,this study points out the future development direction of the reserve-growth trend forecast of oil and gas.The comprehensive geological analysis method guided by hydrocarbon enrichment mode and based on reserves series is the development direction of the prediction method.The quantitative prediction of the spatial distribution of hydrocarbon resources and machine learning is the development direction of prediction technology.Establishing reserve prediction under the whole petroleum system is the development direction of future prediction systems.This article can provide guidance and reference for future reserve-growth prediction study of oil and gas.
关键词
油气储量/增长趋势预测/统计法/储量增长控制因素/多旋回模型
Key words
reserve of oil and gas/growth trend forecast/statistical methods/influencing factors of increasing reserves/multi-cycle model
维普
万方数据