Space-time Evolution and Peak Path Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Construction Industry in Hebei Province
In order to explore the realization path of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"from the perspective of the construction industry and achieve the emission reduction target of the construction industry,this paper,based on the SBM model considering the undesired output and the improved BP neural network combined with the scenario analysis method,studied the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of construction industry emission efficiency and carbon peaking scenarios in 11 prefectures and cities in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2019.The research results show that:1)From 2010 to 2019,the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry in Hebei Province has a development potential of 26%from the production frontier,indicating that there is a large waste of resources in the current development of the construction industry in Hebei Province;2)There are significant spatial differences in the carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry in Hebei Province,and the spatial distribution pattern has changed from"high in the west and low in the east"to"high in the middle and low in the north and south";3)Under the baseline scenario,the construction industry in Hebei Province failed to achieve the carbon peak;under the low-carbon scenario,the peak target can be achieved in 2030;and under the enhanced scenario,the peak time can be advanced to 2027.At the same time,it proposes an emission reduction path that is"led by policy regulation,supplemented by market cooperation,and based on technological upgrading".
construction industrycarbon emission efficiencycarbon peakSBM modelspatiotemporal evolution
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
