Monte Carlo method is used to preprocess the track data of expressway vehicles,and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of traffic flow are simulated.By traversing the vehicle track data with dichotomous method,the loss record rate of each electronic toll system(ETC)door frame and the vehicle type of the most easily lost are obtained.The relationship between toll station traffic flow and the total traffic flow of all toll stations is obtained through establishing the multiple linear regression model of toll station traffic flow and the total traffic flow of all toll stations.Establishing the single objective planning model of the number of lanes and the number of emergency toll collection system,the number of lanes and the number of emergency toll collection system are obtained when the toll stations are smooth and the construction cost of lane and emergency toll collection system are the least.G(1,1)gray model is used to predict the variation trend of traffic flow in each section of 15 toll stations in next 24 hours,which is basically consistent with the actual traffic flow variation trend.Therefore,the predicted traffic flow in each section could be used as a reference to provide improvement basis for highway management departments to improve traffic conditions.
关键词
蒙特卡洛法/二分法/单目标规划模型/多元线性回归模型/G(1,1)灰色模型
Key words
Monte Carlo method/dichotomy method/single objective planning model/multiple linear regression model/G(1,1)grey model
维普
万方数据