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高速公路ETC门架和收费站车辆轨迹数据数学模型研究

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采用蒙特卡洛法对高速公路车辆轨迹数据进行预处理,模拟得出车流量的时间分布特征和空间分布特征.采用二分法遍历车辆轨迹数据,得出各电子收费系统(ETC)门架的漏失记录率以及最易被漏失的车型.建立收费站车流量与所有收费站总车流量的多元线性回归模型,得出收费站车流量与所有收费站总车流量的关系.建立各收费站车道数量和应急收费系统数量的单目标规划模型,得出收费站通行顺畅且车道和应急收费系统建设费用最少时,各收费站车道数量以及应急收费系统数量.采用G(1,1)灰色模型预测出15个收费站间各路段未来24 h的车流量变化趋势,其与实际车流量变化趋势基本吻合,因此可将各路段预测车流量作为参考,为高速公路管理部门改进交通状况提供改进依据.
Research on Mathematical Model of Vehicle Track Data of Highway ETC Gantry and Toll Station
Monte Carlo method is used to preprocess the track data of expressway vehicles,and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of traffic flow are simulated.By traversing the vehicle track data with dichotomous method,the loss record rate of each electronic toll system(ETC)door frame and the vehicle type of the most easily lost are obtained.The relationship between toll station traffic flow and the total traffic flow of all toll stations is obtained through establishing the multiple linear regression model of toll station traffic flow and the total traffic flow of all toll stations.Establishing the single objective planning model of the number of lanes and the number of emergency toll collection system,the number of lanes and the number of emergency toll collection system are obtained when the toll stations are smooth and the construction cost of lane and emergency toll collection system are the least.G(1,1)gray model is used to predict the variation trend of traffic flow in each section of 15 toll stations in next 24 hours,which is basically consistent with the actual traffic flow variation trend.Therefore,the predicted traffic flow in each section could be used as a reference to provide improvement basis for highway management departments to improve traffic conditions.

Monte Carlo methoddichotomy methodsingle objective planning modelmultiple linear regression modelG(1,1)grey model

解慧、张建国、刘永兴、安贤贤、冯雯丽、王刚刚

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晋中学院 数学系,山西晋中 030619

晋中学院 物理系,山西晋中 030619

蒙特卡洛法 二分法 单目标规划模型 多元线性回归模型 G(1,1)灰色模型

2024

石家庄学院学报
石家庄学院

石家庄学院学报

影响因子:0.223
ISSN:1673-1972
年,卷(期):2024.26(6)