Effects of climate change, land use and cover change and CO2 enrichment on runoff:A case study of the Luanhe River basin
Investigating the effects of climate change,land use and cover change (LUCC) and increased CO2 concentration on catchment runoff is important for acquiring an understanding of ecohydrological processes under changing environment at a basin scale.To analyze these effects,a model is developed through coupling a hydrological model (Distributed Time Variant Gain Model; DTVGM),a global terrestrial biogeochemical model for carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus (CASACNP) and a land use Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model.The coupled model is then applied to the Luanhe River basin of Northern China.The model performs well during both model calibration and validation processes.The calibrated model is then used to study the effects of climate change,LUCC and CO2 enrichment on runoff over the basin.Results show the effects of climate change and LUCC on runoff are stronger than that of increased CO2 concentration.The annual runoff exhibits a decreasing trend for the period 2020-2049,and shows a reduced runoff as compared to the base year for most of the scenarios.The intra-annual analysis shows a decrease in runoff during wetter months and an increase during drier months.The monthly runoff during flood seasons would be more sensitive in the future as compared to non-flooding seasons.
climate changeland use and cover changeCO2runoffLuanhe River basin
曾思栋、夏军、杜鸿、张利平、陈向东、王任超、ADITYA Sood
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武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072
水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072
中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038
水利部珠江水利委员会水文局,广东广州510611
International Water Management Institute, Sunil Mawatha, Pelawatte, Battaramulla, Colombo 10120, Sri Lanka
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
