摘要
为充分理解全球洪涝灾害的时空演变规律,基于长时间序列全球历史洪灾数据,运用数理统计和GIS空间分析方法,在不同空间尺度和年代际、年际的时间尺度上,全面分析了 1980-2020 年重大洪涝灾害的时空特征.结果表明:① 全球洪灾次数在21 世纪前10a达到峰值,死亡和影响人口在1990s达到峰值,累计经济损失在 2010s达到峰值,次均经济损失在1990s和2010s最高;② 洪灾发生次数及造成的经济损失在 1980-2020 年期间呈显著上升趋势,每次洪灾造成的人口损失呈现下降趋势;③ 亚洲洪涝灾害严重,洪灾的发生次数、死亡人数、影响人口及经济损失的累计值分别占全球总数的41%、68%、95%和63%,然而包括中国在内的亚洲诸多国家的洪灾人口损失呈下降趋势;④ 全球重大洪灾呈东西向分布,灾害重心有南移趋势,洪灾由集中趋于分散,影响区域逐渐变广.
Abstract
To gain a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of global flood disasters,we conducted an in-depth analysis using mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis methods.Leveraging long-term global historical flood data spanning from 1980 to 2020 and considering various spatial scales,as well as inter-decadal and inter-annual time scales,our findings revealed the following:① The peak occurrence of global flood disasters took place in the first decade of the 21st century.Deaths and affected populations reached their zenith in the 1990s,while cumulative economic losses peaked in the 2010s,with average economic losses being highest during the 1990s and 2010s.② Over the period from 1980 to 2020,both the frequency of flood disasters and the resulting economic losses exhibited notable upward trends,while population losses per disaster demonstrated a declining pattern.③Asia experienced pronounced flooding,contributing to 41%,68%,95%,and 63%of the global totals in terms of flood occurrences,deaths,affected populations,and economic losses,respectively.Despite this,several Asian countries,including China,displayed a decreasing trend in flood-related population losses.④Global flood disasters displayed an east-west distribution,with a discernible southward shift in the centers of disasters.There was a tendency for flood disasters to become more decentralized,impacting progressively broader regions.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据