Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

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国家科技期刊平台
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外文摘要：Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate D-vine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

外文关键词：

Stochastic monthly streamflow simulationMixed D-vine copulaConditional quantile modelUp-to-down sequential methodTangnaihai hydrological station

作者：

Wen-zhuo Wang、Zeng-chuan Dong、Tian-yan Zhang、Li Ren、Lian-qing Xue、Teng Wu

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作者单位：

College of Water Resources and Hydrology,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China

Yellow River Research Center,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China

基金：

国家自然科学基金中国博士后科学基金China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents

项目编号：

521090102021M701047BX20200113

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1016/j.wse.2023.05.004

水科学与水工程

河海大学

水科学与水工程

CSTPCDEI

影响因子：0.432

ISSN：1674-2370

年,卷(期)：2024.17(1)