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基于随机森林的水电站发电调度规则研究

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以滩坑水电站为例,构建两组输入因子集,分别建立随机森林回归模型,模拟长系列出力和水位过程,探索因子数量对模拟结果的影响,根据优选的多因子随机森林模型进行了模型的泛化能力评估.结果表明,基于随机森林提取发电调度规则,模拟精度较高,可应用于实际;衍生因子的引入使得模拟效果略有提升;随机森林泛化能力强,但对于一些特殊来水情形其模拟能力略显不足;随机森林模型所造成的长时段水位偏低的形成机制是误差传播.
Study on Operation Rules of Hydropower Stations Based on Random Forests Method
Taking Tankeng Hydropower Station as an example,the random forests regression models are established to simulate the long-term series of power generation and water level respectively by using two different sets of factors as the inputs.The influences of the number of input factors are analyzed and the generalization ability of model is evaluated.The results show that the operation rules extracted from random forests method has higher simulation accuracy,the introduction of derivative factors can slightly improve simulation results,the random forests method does not perform well when it comes to some particular inflow situations,and the long-term low water level is caused by the error propagation in random forests.

hydropower stationoptimal operationoperation rulerandom forests

严梦佳、钟平安、闫海滨、刘强

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河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京210098

中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州310014

水电站 优化调度 调度规则 随机森林

国家重点研发计划项目国家自然科学基金

2017YFC040560651579068

2018

水力发电
中国水电工程顾问集团公司

水力发电

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.487
ISSN:0559-9342
年,卷(期):2018.44(1)
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