首页|基于联合主成分分析的宜昌站径流中长期预报

基于联合主成分分析的宜昌站径流中长期预报

扫码查看
中长期径流预报对于水资源规划管理、水库及水电站调度均具有重要意义,本文主要采用降水、径流和气象数据,应用主成分分析、气象因子遥相关分析等方法,利用东亚降水区域的联合主成分,对宜昌站径流进行中长期预报.运用主成分对宜昌站径流进行局域回归,预报取得了较好的效果.
Medium and long-term prediction of river runoff at Yichang with joint principal component analysis
Medium and long-term prediction of river runoff is crucial to water resources planning and management, and reservoir and power plant regulations. This paper focuses on such prediction of the runoff at Yichang station by using data of rainfall, runoff and meteorology, with the methods of principal component analysis and climate factors teleconnection. The. Results show that good predictions can be achieved by adopting local regression of the runoff and choosing the joint principal component of precipitation in Asia area as a runoff predictor.

hydrologymedium and long-term runoff predictionprincipal component analysisYangtze Riverteleconnectionlocal regression

周淼、田富强、胡和平

展开 >

清华大学水利水电工程系,水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

水文学 中长期径流预报 主成分分析 长江 遥相关 局域回归

国家自然科学基金水利部公益项目

51190092201001004

2013

水力发电学报
中国水力发电工程学会

水力发电学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.801
ISSN:1003-1243
年,卷(期):2013.32(1)
  • 11
  • 13