水风光多能互补系统的韧性及其评估方法
Resilience of hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary system and its evaluation method
樊思洋 1颜克胜 1王荣琴 1任康 1郑霞忠1
作者信息
- 1. 三峡大学 水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北 宜昌 443002;三峡大学 水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002
- 折叠
摘要
全球气候变化加剧,极端事件频发,水风光多能互补系统的安全稳定运行面临严峻挑战,亟需合理评判互补系统在极端事件扰动下的韧性.首先阐述了水风光的互补特性,并分析了互补系统面临的扰动类型;其次提出了互补系统韧性的概念,并构建了互补系统韧性的三阶段概念模型;然后在此基础上,选取月、季和年时间尺度,设定互补系统的出力阈值,基于出力损失建立了互补系统韧性的评估指标与评估方法;最后对黄河上游清洁能源基地实例进行了韧性评估.评估结果验证了所提韧性评估指标与评估方法的有效性;水电韧性优于风电和光电,且水风光的互补特性能显著提升整体系统的韧性.研究可为水风光多能互补系统的资源配置、调度策略及安全运行提供决策辅助.
Abstract
As global climate change intensifies and extreme events occur more frequently,the safe and stable operation of hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary systems faces great challenges,necessitating a rational evaluation of the resilience of these systems under extreme event disturbances.This study first elaborates on the complementary characteristics of hydropower,wind,and solar energy,and examines the types of disturbances confronted by these integrated systems.Then,a new concept of resilience for a complementary system is discussed,and a three-stage conceptual model for resilience is developed.Based on this framework,we select monthly,seasonal,and annual timescales and specify power output thresholds for the complementary system,and formulate an evaluation index and methodology for resilience assessment based on power output loss.Finally,to evaluate the resilience,a case study is conducted on a clean energy base in the upper Yellow River.The assessment results validate the effectiveness of the evaluation index and methodology.Notably,hydropower energy demonstrates superior resilience compared to wind and solar power,and the system's overall resilience is enhanced significantly through utilizing the complementary nature of hydropower,wind,and solar energy.This study helps decision-making for resource allocation,scheduling strategies,and safe operation of integrated hydro-wind-solar energy systems.
关键词
水风光多能互补系统/极端事件扰动/韧性三阶段概念模型/韧性评估/出力阈值Key words
hydro-wind-solar multi-energy complementary system/extreme event disturbances/three-stage conceptual model of resilience/resilience assessment/output threshold value引用本文复制引用
出版年
2025
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据